Threat of Severe Thunderstorm Overnight for Northwest Arkansas

Chief Meteorologist Dan Skoff breaks down threats and timeline

Convective Outlook for Day 1 issued 3:00 p.m. CDT April 5, 2022

A powerful system will cut through northwest Arkansas which could bring severe storms as a cold front blows through the area late tonight through early Wednesday morning. Here is the latest information with threats and timeline.

Day 1 Convective outlook Severe threats (Probabilistic outlook for tornadoes, hail and wind)

All threats will be possible with these isolated storms developing ahead of the cold front, including the potential for a tornado or two with isolated cells.

Tornado threat for the night. A tornado or two will be possible

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 1 out of 5 (marginal) risk for severe storms in the northwest region of Arkansas. Isolated severe thunderstorms will likely develop late this evening before midnight and last until the early morning hours around 3am.

Understand the risk levels of the storm forecasting center and the type of severe weather they can bring

The timing of these storms is expected to be OVERNIGHT…as some of you sleep from 11:00 p.m. CDT Tuesday night until 3:00 a.m. CDT Wednesday morning. ALL models show storm potential developing along the cold front grazing northwest Arkansas, but the river valley region is a little more uncertain due to the lack of upper level support to form storms.

Timing of Storms in Northwest Arkansas

We will need to watch this timing closely as there are indications that wind shear and instability will be sufficient for revolving storms, including tornadoes. The window of opportunity for tornadoes will be brief, but it exists especially if the storms can remain isolated.

Significant tornado parameter with latest HRRR model

We will continue to update you on the latest threats and timeline. If storms start to threaten our area, we’ll be broadcasting our weather coverage live, so keep it here with your Weather Authority team for the latest information.

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